Selling winners quickly and nursing losers endlessly feels protective, yet it often inverts rational risk-taking. Ask whether you’d buy the position today at this price. If not, why hold? Reframe by expected value, not original cost, and let position size reflect conviction, not nostalgia or the sting of a prior decision.
Fresh news crowds out base rates. A dazzling rally or a scary slide can hijack the narrative. Counter by retrieving long-term data, broad context, and historical ranges. When you see today’s move against decades of examples, intensity fades, probabilities clarify, and you resist extrapolating a brief spark into an endless storyline.
It is tempting to follow voices that agree. Make dissent a standard input: read the strongest opposing case, write why it could be right, and list evidence that would change your mind. Curiosity reduces blind spots, preserves flexibility, and turns disagreement from a threat into a valuable stress test for decisions.
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